Paradigma de los pronósticos sísmicos en Chile Central

Abstract

Earthquakes and their effects in the territory of Chile have been studied and analysed since the arrival of Spanish conquerors in America in 1575. Such phenomena are mainly due to the geographic location of Central Chile associated to Nazca plate subduction under South American plate. This situation has resulted in a series of major earthquakes affecting the central zone and its coastal area, in some cases accompanied by devastating tsunamis.
Most of these tectonic processes are unknown by the population so it has always been of great interest to study the parameters that originate them and their effects. Studies tending to be able to predict these events, considering the problems that exist in determining their genesis.
Currently, most of the knowledge of the effects produced by earthquakes are those that have been recorded and observed after the seismic events have occurred.
None of the ancient and current hypotheses about the origin of earthquakes have been able to solve the problem of predicting these telluric events, within reasonable periods of time. Currently, most of the measures taken to face the effects of earthquakes have their origin in the detailed analysis of surface observations and deep tectonic ruptures, characteristics that to a certain extent have allowed determining the genesis of the movement. This knowledge has made it possible to improve construction regulations for civil works in general and the protocols for abandoning high-risk areas in case of tsunamis.
At present, a series of articles have been written and published related to the prediction of earthquakes associated with the subduction of the Nazca plate in Central Chile based on statistical parameters. The conclusions are always the same, that there is a seismic risk of an earthquake occurring in some area. The most adventurous even give dates of occurrence. If the geophysical instrumentalization has not allowed to predict destructive seismic events and others associated with fault dynamics, it is unlikely that statistical studies can produce a reliable prediction.